How Masayoshi Son's thinking about riding revolutions evolved
the evolution of riding revolutions · 1981–2026
Open the interactive atlas →How the thinking evolved
1957→81
From Kyushu to the Valley
Korean-Japanese roots and discrimination, UC Berkeley, a first invention (a translator sold to Sharp). In 1981 he founds SoftBank — stands on a crate and declares he'll be number one.
„In five years, I'm going to have $75 million in sales. In five years, I will be supplying 1,000 dealer outlets, and we'll be number one in PC software distribution. And I said it very loudly.”
1981
Software
Software distribution, computer magazines, the COMDEX trade shows. "Information revolution — happiness for everyone." A bet on the digital wave.
„Everything we do is inspired by our corporate philosophy, 'Information Revolution — Happiness for everyone.' All that has changed is the means to achieve this end. As technology evolves, so too must our methods.”
2000
Internet
Yahoo! Japan, then the legendary bet: $20M into Alibaba after a few minutes — "I saw the fire in Jack Ma's eyes." The internet as the revolution.
„Jack was the only one with the eyes sparkling and [he] caught my heart.”
2006
Infrastructure
Vodafone Japan on enormous debt, Sprint, and in 2016 the ARM acquisition ($32B) — control over the core of future devices and IoT.
„ARM will be the center of the Internet of Things, in which everything will be connected. IoT is going to be the biggest paradigm shift in human history and we have always invested at the beginning of every paradigm shift.”
2017
AI / singularity
The Vision Fund ($100B, the largest ever) and a bet on the singularity. Asymmetric mega-rounds (Uber, WeWork) — huge wins and huge losses.
„It may sound strange, but I think I was born to realize ASI. I am super serious about it.”
2026
The AI wave
ARM as the core of AI chips + a full focus on AI; the "300-year vision." The closure: from the information revolution to artificial super-intelligence.
Key concepts
Software
Software Distribution
SoftBank's origin: software distribution and computer magazines as a bet on the digital wave and the information revolution. 'I will be number one in PC software distribution.'
300-Year Vision
Planning on a century-scale — the company as a living organism with engineered DNA, built to survive 300 years. The long horizon absorbs short-term losses.
Information Revolution
SoftBank's corporate philosophy since 1981: the information revolution as a path to happiness for all humanity. An unchanged goal across four decades — only the means have evolved.
Internet
Internet Bets
Yahoo! Japan and the legendary bet on Alibaba: the internet as a revolution you must enter early and boldly. Insight in five minutes — no business plan needed.
Paradigm Bet
Enter a new paradigm — internet, mobile, AI — before others believe in it: early and with full conviction. Every wave from PC to AI is another incarnation of the same revolution.
Time Machine
Transplant proven business models from mature markets (USA) to emerging ones (Japan, China, India) — like traveling back in time when you already know the outcome.
Fire in the Eyes
Back a founder on the intuition of their determination — Son invested in Alibaba within minutes, guided by Jack Ma's 'shining eyes' rather than any business plan.
Cluster of No. 1
Portfolio-building strategy: invest only in companies that are already the leader — or the leading candidate — in their niche. The portfolio as a galaxy of stars, planets, and satellites spanning 300 years.
Broadband Platform
Yahoo BB (2001): 8 Mbps ADSL — five times faster and three times cheaper than NTT. Broadband as infrastructure for content, mobile, and the next layers of services built on top.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure Platform
Telecom (Vodafone Japan, Sprint) and the $32 billion acquisition of ARM: control over infrastructure and the core of future devices as leverage for the next wave.
Financial Leverage
Debt and a holding structure as leverage for ambition. Bold leverage on major acquisitions (Vodafone Japan, ARM) finances a vision impossible with equity alone.
ARM — Core of IoT and AI
ARM designs the cores in 95% of smartphones and most IoT chips. One trillion connected devices → massive data streams → fuel for AI. Whoever holds ARM holds the infrastructure of the revolution.
AI
AI and the Singularity
The Vision Fund and a bet on artificial superintelligence: ARM as the core of AI, massive asymmetric bets. 'I was born to realize ASI.'
Asymmetric Bets
Bet heavily on potential winners — one Alibaba covers dozens of failures. Accept large losses as the cost of hunting for investments with a 10,000× return.
The Singularity Thesis
Artificial superintelligence (IQ 10,000) will surpass the collective intelligence of humanity. Whoever controls the core of AI chips (ARM) controls the future of civilization.
Vision Fund
A $100 billion fund — the largest in VC history — for mega-rounds in companies driving the AI revolution. VF1 + VF2 combined represent over $150 billion in committed capital.
Unicorn Hunting
Massive, large-scale rounds in category leaders (Uber, WeWork, Coupang, DoorDash). Capital as a weapon — give a startup enough to last 10 years and let it win by sheer overwhelming force.
Vision Capitalist
Son defines himself not as an investor (goal: make money) but as a capital provider (goal: create the future). The primary metric is NAV (Net Asset Value), not operating profit.
Selected quotes
„In five years, I'm going to have $75 million in sales. In five years, I will be supplying 1,000 dealer outlets, and we'll be number one in PC software distribution. And I said it very loudly.”
„Everything we do is inspired by our corporate philosophy, 'Information Revolution — Happiness for everyone.' All that has changed is the means to achieve this end. As technology evolves, so too must our methods.”
„Jack was the only one with the eyes sparkling and [he] caught my heart.”
„ARM will be the center of the Internet of Things, in which everything will be connected. IoT is going to be the biggest paradigm shift in human history and we have always invested at the beginning of every paradigm shift.”
„It may sound strange, but I think I was born to realize ASI. I am super serious about it.”
„I should fall in love with [the] business for the next 50 years at least.”
„Within 10 years I wanted to be number one in that particular business.”
„This vision is designed with the time span of 300 years. The next 3 decades is merely the first step.”
„My most important role as the founder is to design the DNA of SoftBank Group, which will last at least 300 years.”
„I can smell [Ma]. We are the same animal; we are both a little crazy.”
„One year before that, my personal net worth was increasing $10 billion per week. For three days, I became richer than Bill Gates.”
„Before I told anybody else, our stock started crashing… We almost went bankrupt. Somehow. I survived.”
Key events
- 01.01.1979 Sale of the electronic translator patent to Sharp Corp. (~$1.7 million)
- 03.09.1981 Articulation of the philosophy: “Information Revolution — Happiness for everyone”
- 01.01.1992 Harvard Business Review Interview — philosophy of choosing a business
- 31.01.1996 Founding of Yahoo! Japan (joint venture: SoftBank 60% / Yahoo 40%)
- 01.01.2000 The $20 million bet on Alibaba — “fire in Jack Ma’s eyes”
- 01.09.2001 Yahoo BB — the broadband revolution in Japan
- 11.07.2008 iPhone exclusivity in Japan — a bet sealed with a handshake
- 05.06.2014 Pepper launch — ‘giving a robot a heart’
- 21.06.2016 Departure of Nikesh Arora — Son abandons succession
- 01.02.2017 MWC 2017 — the superintelligence thesis: “a chip in a shoe smarter than a brain”
- 01.01.2018 Investment in Uber — $9 billion on Son’s terms
- 26.07.2019 Vision Fund 2 — $108 billion target, ~$56 billion raised
- 27.10.2020 Peak value of SoftBank’s Alibaba stake — more than $200 billion (2020)
- 01.11.2021 Vision Fund losses — over $53 billion in two years
- 21.06.2024 ASI declaration: “I was born to realize superintelligence”
- 26.06.2025 SoftBank’s NAV: approx. 31 trillion JPY — ARM as the main driver